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Trump, Clinton running nearly even in Iowa poll

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WASHINGTON, D.C. — Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are virtually tied in Iowa, a new poll finds.

Trump has the support of 44% of Iowa voters while Clinton received 42%, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday. His 2-point edge is well within the survey’s 4.9-point margin of error.

“It’s a toss-up right now, but Iowa could be the leading edge of a Midwest push for Trump,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Among other Iowa voters likely to participate in the presidential election, 6% plan to vote for Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson while 1% say they will back Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Another 2% plan to vote for another candidate while 6% are undecided.

Notably, Trump is beating Clinton with voters younger than 50, 51% to 32%, while Clinton is winning with Iowa voters aged 50 and older, 50% to 38%.

That result differs from the findings of other recent surveys nationally and in battleground states. While it may be the result of sampling error, the difference could also be a reflection of Iowa’s relatively small minority population. White voters tend to tilt more Republican than racial minorities, even among younger voters, and the effect of that difference is evident in 2012 exit polls. They showed President Barack Obama carrying 56% of Iowa’s under-30 voters, compared with significantly higher numbers in other, less-white battlegrounds like Nevada (68%), North Carolina (67%), Florida (66%), Ohio (63%) and Virginia (61%).

The poll was conducted from July 8 to 11 with a random sample of 401 likely Iowa voters. A live caller interviewed 351 registered voters (200 on a landline and 151 on a cell phone) and a random digit-dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. The error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

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