Betting markets predict Trump and Cruz have roughly equal shot at nomination
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz are almost tied for the Republican nomination, according to CNN’s Political Prediction Market.
The billionaire businessman’s odds for the nomination are at 47% while Cruz’s odds are at 46%. Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s odds for the nomination are at 4%.
The Political Prediction Market is an online game that is administered by a company called Pivit. It functions like an online market and allows Internet users to predict the outcome of the 2016 election.
Last week, a CNN Poll of Polls found that Trump holds the lead nationwide, with the primary and caucus season past its halfway point. In that analysis, Trump held a 12-point lead over Cruz, 43% to 31%, with Kasich behind at 19%.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton still leads Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination, with her odds at 82% compared to Sanders’ 17%. And Democrats have higher chances over Republicans to win the White House — 76% to 24%, respectively.
Cruz and Sanders both took home delegates in the latest primary in Wisconsin on Tuesday. Now the presidential candidates have shifted their attention to the state of New York, where Trump and Clinton will try to earn delegates in their home state April 19.
Trump’s odds to win the New York Republican primary are at 99% compared to Cruz’s 1%. Clinton’s chances for the primary are at 80% while Sanders’ are at 20%.